21 Jan Austin’s Climate Urgency, pt 2
What do Alejandro Escovedo and the Pope have in common? … They both believe climate leadership is underserved. Alejandro recently added the 433rd signature to a citizen petition urging renewed leadership at City Hall. The Pope focused his 2010 start-the-new-year address on denouncing the failure of world diplomats to come to a significant agreement on mitigating greenhouse gas emissions:
Jan. 11, 2010 – Pope Benedict XVI denounced the failure of world leaders to agree to a new climate change treaty in Copenhagen last month, saying that world peace depends on safeguarding God’s creation. "I trust that in the course of this year … it will be possible to reach an agreement for effectively dealing with this question," Benedict said.1
Disconnections
All over the US we’re managing extreme bipartisanism, an upside down economy, the war, healthcare, etc. etc. etc. You know this. Here in Austin we’ve got a unique situation, though — in 2007 City Council committed to making Austin "the leading city in the nation in the fight against climate change." That’s pretty great, leading the world’s leading economy, but progress has been slow. So slow in fact, Jake Stewart, bright star and manager of Austin Energy’s Climate Protection Program, resigned due to frustrations this Fall.
More significantly, according to climatological models presented in the UN Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) 4th Assessment Report 2007 (yes, I’m aware of the controversy), Austin and Central Texas will see average annual temperatures rise about 2 degrees Fahrenheit by 2050, above 1960-1999 mean temperatures, and 5 to 7 degrees F by 2099… Regarding this temperature increase, the IPCC’s 2007 report states,
"A 5 °F rise, relative to 1980-1999 temperatures, suggests a 40%–70% extinction of all species.”
That point relates to the future viability of our food chain. Make no mistake, the risks of rapid climate change are not about treehugging, they’re about human survival.
Note that while the warming trend I’ve cited is the IPCC worst case scenario, Jake Stewart tells me current global greenhouse gas emission rates are exceeding the assumed threshold in the IPCC’s worst case scenario. And, note that the IPCC’s chairman said three years ago, "This is our defining moment."2 It’s not coming soon, my friends, it’s now.
Shouldn’t Austinites take the lead? We have the leadership, we have enormous talent and goodwill, what’s missing? (Please write your suggestions below.)
Then again, taking a look at animated climate models, years 2000-2099 (via climatewizard.org) it’s no wonder people are confused and disconnected. According to the video — it’ll be about 2044 before poop hits the fan, in terms of our local land surface temperatures… after that, things start moving really fast.
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Local Actions
Climate leadership petition: here
City carbon calculator: here
Resources
IPCC visual modeling: http://www.climatewizard.org
IPCC animated visual modeling: http://www.climatewizard.org/tnc/ClimateChange.html
Notes
1) Associated Press, Jan. 11, 2010, Pope denounces failure to forge new climate treaty http://www.cnbc.com/id/34801276/ and Voice of America article, Ja. 12, http://www1.voanews.com/english/news/europe/Pope-Denounces-Failure-of-Copenhagen-Climate-Change-Negotiations-81225017.html/ more: In his address to diplomats from more than 170 nations accredited to the Vatican, Pope Benedict expressed concern about the failure to reach agreement on climate change at the Copenhagen summit
2) See my post, Bringing Copenhagen Home: Austin’s Climate Urgency, pt. 1 here for more info
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