18 Feb What’s All The Fuss? Austin’s Energy Generation Plan
Austin's Energy Generation Plan.
Let's be clear where the apostrophe goes – this is our Generation Plan – the one for the City of Austin and all of it's citizens – not just for the utility that we are citizen shareholders of called Austin Energy.
A meeting was held February 4th to brief the citizen shareholders on the utility's options to retire the Fayette coal plant – now ranked 5th in Texas in greenhouse gas emissions in the 2013 rankings. The two hour meeting was cut very short by over an hour of executive session where the Council and Austin Energy left the room and the public was left with a great networking opportunity.
This video picks up the story from there, in a presentation by the utility's Khalil Shalabi , VP of Energy Market Operations and Resource Planning.
http://bit.ly/1bYE5NB
Listen to the discussion and see if this is where we (Austin) want our utility (Austin Energy) to be headed.
Here is my take on this process and plan as forwarded in a letter to Mayor Leffingwell, City Council and other key people in the process on February 14:
Mayor Lee Leffingwell and
Austin City Council
City of Austin
PO Box 1088
Austin, TX 78767
Dear Mayor Leffingwell and City Council,
Austin Energy is a nationally recognized leader in Green Energy – a municipal utility that we as citizen shareholders of Austin Energy look to with pride for innovation. I fear that this driving spirit of innovation in absent in this Generation Plan cycle. I ask you to look at the Process, Community Values, Optimum Generation Mix, Rates and Climate Change as we begin this important phase of planning for Austin’s electric needs for the coming decade.
PROCESS
Citizen Input
I see an effort to limit important input from both citizen shareholders and important organizations that have worked collaboratively with expertise on previous energy issues.
Citizen input is limited to direct letters like this, testimony to the EUC and a single email link on Austin Energy’s web site. What were described in December as “Targeted briefings and stakeholder input meetings” have truncated down to three presentations by Austin Energy at their downtown headquarters – two during working hours – with no possibility of public testimony. Nothing takes place in the neighborhood communities.
Data Access
The many organizations that have expert analysts and contributors are standing in the dark without access to the data and energy forecast assumptions so necessary to participate in the discussion. The scare tactic at the February 4th Council meeting of throwing up some vague scenarios without underlying data certainly got Council’s and the media’s attention ‘”25% Rate Increase If We Close Fayette.” Yet it was based on a scenario that no one would seriously propose, namely close the plant and buy all the replacement power from ERCOT at market rates.
We who are concerned with eliminating the massive pollution and greenhouse gases from Fayette will come to the table with fiscally responsible scenarios that integrate as much renewable energy as possible – along with energy saving measures – that provide for a realistic ramp down and retirement by 2018. We understand you can’t just flip the switch off and have it work. Dr. Armendariz, Cyrus Reed, Tom Smith, Karen Hadden, Joep Meijir, Bob Murray and others are well informed on energy planning and working to strike an optimum balance.
Serious Scenarios
The scenarios presented at the February 4th meeting were neither green focused nor optimum. They did not even pick optimum time frames – it seems 2017 is a more challenging financial year for Austin Energy than the 2018 date we had been requesting. They did not provide any underlying data – such as forecast assumptions of future prices for coal, gas, wind and solar.
It is critical that Austin Energy be open to providing data and discussing realistic alternatives throughout the development of the Generation Plan.
AUSTIN’S COMMUNITY VALUES
Austin has been – is – and aspires to continue as a national leader in green energy. It is a source of both pride and motivation that we are reaching our 35% renewables target early and that we are on track to meet most of the goals of our original 2007 Climate Protection goals.
Those are the beginning steps of what has to be serious response to combat climate change. Success with these early benchmarks must energize us to reach higher. Thirty five percent renewables needs to become fifty percent then seventy five percent – then all! Carbon reduction leads to Carbon Neutral – even Carbon Positive as Austin’s Interfaith Environmental Network strives for.
These are the aspirational values of Austin, Texas – not just cheerleading goals – but key metrics as we all face the realities of the climate crisis. We appear stuck on a plateau where much has been accomplished but little more is planned.
How do we get there?
Green Choice was a national leader. It engaged Austin – pioneering wind development at a level never before seen. We now have achieved more wind power than we have Green Choice pioneers. The program as morphed into a simple ‘1¢ for a Green Window Sticker’ added to your bill. It has lost direction and lost its soul.
We ask Austin Energy to think deeply about what kind of program would motivate today’s pioneers to bring us to the next level of wind and solar – a Green Choice program that meets today’s realities and propels us forward.
We ask for a new Green Choice plan – maybe Green Solar – to inspire.
We ask for an updated Climate Protection Plan to lead our mission.
OPTIMUM GENERATION MIX
At first glimpse, Austin Energy’s plan is to double down on fossil fuels: Run Fayette flat out till 2020 then slowly phase down by 2025. Austin cannot in good conscience continue as a partner in the 6th largest source of greenhouse gases in Texas – one that also causes so much pollution and health risk throughout the region.
Add to it a brand new commitment to fossil fuels as ‘800 MW CC’ gas. How much will that cost? How long would we plan to run it? How does it meet the climate goals our citizen shareholders want for Austin?
Alternative scenarios are being proposed – and must be optimized – to get off fossil fuels of all types as quickly as practical. The new coastal wind contracts are so low that Austin Energy won’t disclose them. Solar is fast approaching grid parity. When it does, all bets are off with fossil fuels. We benefit from close cooperation with Pecan Street as they develop innovative ways to optimize our energy use. We have leading conservation and weatherization programs in place, ready to be ramped up to save energy and create more local jobs.
Why then, do we want a giant new gas plant that would tie our hands for forty years in such a quickly innovating renewable energy market? The gas industry is working day and night to build LNG terminals for shipping our gas overseas, bringing themselves higher gas prices. What is our scenario to deal with gas prices as that happens?
When gas prices do shoot up, wind and sunshine will still be FREE. If we put those turbines and solar panels in place now, they’ll just keep producing power at their amortization cost.
I also have to ask why Council sits back as Austin Energy continues to ignore their mandate issued last fall for 400MW solar, with 200 MW to be local? Please stand up – again – and make this happen. Local energy, local engagement, local jobs, no CO2.
RATES
Energy generation is at a crossroads.
Coal is going up over time. Gas is now disruptively cheap as the externalities of fracking risk, water use, methane leaks and CO2 emissions are not accounted for. Any regulatory or legislative action on any or all of these issues would move the price of gas upward – as would the movement to export LNG. What are the assumptions that support a big bet on 800 MW gas in this context?
Meanwhile, wind prices are coming on parity with coal and solar is approaching parity. Both are confidently expected decline in price over the Gen Plan timeframe. The CREZ transmission lines are now operational – eliminating congestion costs and restrictions – and allowing increases in both wind and solar to be brought in from western regions of Texas. Our new coastal wind contracts will be running during 2014 -16, providing a daytime power balance to our West Texas wind’s nighttime peaks. Austin will have a wind generation footprint spanning most of Texas, providing greatly improved system stability and reliability. I do not hear this mentioned in the discussion. It is a significant resource advantage to have wind – and potentially solar – sources spread over such a wide area.
Investments in weatherization, efficiency, load shifting and demand response pay ongoing dividends as negawatts that dampen the demand curve. Let’s do more.
Austin’s ambitious rate goals are important – bottom 50% of Texas and 2% cap. We are not asking for rate increases to support renewables. We certainly cannot ask the poorer citizens to pay more. We are asking that now competitive renewables provide Austin’s power at an ever-increasing share. Committing to forty years of gas is also huge ratepayer risk in both fuel price and as a potentially stranded asset.
CLIMATE CHANGE
Climate change is not a far off concept. It is not even – as environmentalists often say – about our grandchildren. It is happening now. Look at Bastrop, look at Lake Travis, Onion Creek, drought, floods, heat records worldwide.
It’s only going to be much, much worse for our grandchildren.
I look forward to working with you to create a positive and forward-looking Generation Plan for Austin. Thank you for your efforts.
Cordially,
Al Braden
Cc: Marc Ott, City Manager
Robert Goode, Assistant City Manager
Gary Bernfeld, Chair, EUC
Karen Haden, Vice-Chair, EUC
Larry Weis, GM, Austin Energy
Cheryl Mele, COO, Austin Energy
Khaili Shalabi, VP, Austin Energy
I hope that you will also make your voice hear at City Hall on the creation of Austin's Energy Generation Plan that will lead us into a new decade of commitment to a sustainable future.
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